Hurricane prognosticators have hit an embarrassing low in 2013. Zero, zip and nada is what happened. They predicted just the opposite with at least 11 major storms predicted to strike. Shaun Marker noted the high predictions in Kloztbach and Gray Predict Hurricane Season Well Above the Historical Average for the Last Century.
Zac Anderson of the Sarasota Herald obtained an admission that those professional prognosticators should get an “F” for 2014:
We had an absolutely massive bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist with Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. “It’s a huge error, but when you’re forecasting the weather there are always going to be years that really throw you. We’ll try to learn from it and improve it going forward.
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Meteorologists try to emphasize that the forecasts are simply an educated guess. Klotzbach said he can only account for roughly 40 to 50 percent of the variables that affect hurricane development and intensity.
Humbly, yours truly had it right in Hurricane Season 2013, where I noted the infamous Merlin Law of Probability and stated the following:
The 2013 Hurricane Season is just around the corner. I normally do not worry much about early season hurricanes because the “big ones” normally do not start rolling until August. Still, this time of the year a number of prognosticators release their predictions about the upcoming hurricane season. I suggest a better use of one’s time is spent thinking about the types of insurance coverage you have. Further, you should prepare your homes, businesses, and yourself for a hurricane catastrophe. The Merlin Rule of Probability states that the odds of a hurricane striking you decrease with the more insurance coverage you buy and the better you prepare for its occurrence. Insurance agents and disaster preparedness companies should quote me in their sales presentations.
I bought a 10th floor condominium this year which is a few minutes from the Tampa office and is on the water. I also bought flood insurance on it. Unless an Armageddon like 100 foot tidal wave strikes, I am never going to collect on that policy. But, following the Merlin Law of Probability, the odds are extraordinarily favorable to Tampa being spared from that catastrophe.
All this hurricane season talk has me thinking about a favorite Jimmy Buffett song, Tryin’ to Reason with Hurricane Season:
